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Prediction Contest Rules


Contents


How to log in

The first time you wish to access the contest, it is necessary to "sign up" -- use the lower of the two login forms to 'create' an account. When you do this, you may choose any user name and password that you wish (... as long as the user name is not a duplicate of an existing name, or obscene). If you have already signed up, then use the upper form to log into your existing account. (If you forget your password, you can contact me per the instructions on the "login" form.)

You are welcome to create more than one account, if you want to enter for yourself and for a friend, or if you want to enter for yourself and a computer rating program, etc. (Just please don't make a bunch of entries if you don't plan to enter for them throughout the season.)


How the contest is operated

Weeks can exist in three different "states" in the contest:

The process is fairly simple: you must use the web interface to give your predictions after the week is entered but before it is closed. Weeks are subject to being closed up to a few hours prior to kickoff of the first game, so you shouldn't try to wait until the very last second. Weeks should be entered at least six days in advance of the games, so you will have ample time to enter. (If you're going to be away from the internet for a while, let me know and I will put in entries a few weeks ahead.)

The contest is set up to accomodate any number of games per week. In general the Ohio State game and a few other relevant Big Ten games will be included in the week's entry.


How entries are scored

There are three categories of points, which are added together. These categories are:

For example: Suppose I pick Ohio State to beat Toledo 44-21 (margin = +23). Suppose that Toledo wins 31-24 (margin = -7). I would get:

My total score for that prediction would be the sum of those three scores (20 plus 10 plus 90), which equals 120. It's a little easier to see the math when written out in a table:

  Ohio State Toledo   Victory
Margin
My Prediction 44 21 44 - 21 = +23
Actual Result 24 31 24 - 31 = -7
  44 - 24 = 31 - 21 =   (+23) - (-7) =
Difference 20 [A] 10 [B]   30 [C]

As you can see from the algorithm: the closer the prediction to the actual outcome, the lower the score. A prediction that is exactly right scores zero points. When the year-total score is produced, the entrants are ranked by total score with the lowest scores on top.


What's the 'penalty' for missed weeks?

In order to sort the scores of those who missed weeks alongside the scores of those who did enter every week, it is necessary to "invent" some score for the missed week. The score for a missed week is currently 1.1 times the average score for the week of all of the people who did enter (in other words, it's a slightly below-average score).


What if I miss a lot of weeks?

Since several people drop out of the contest without letting me know, I delete any user which has skipped three straight weeks. If you wish to miss a few weeks and still be entered in the contest, please contact me and I will not delete your userid.

If you are going to be away from your computer and still want to enter, please let me know. I can select games several weeks in advance, allowing you to make advance entries. Then you don't have to miss any weeks.


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