so I had a few minutes this afternoon and decided to try to help curt out on his picks...


[ Follow Ups ] [ O-Zone Forum ]

By Brutus on 12:23:43 10/09/19

...since he has been taking an unwarranted (IMO) beating for saying Wisconsin would be doo doo this year etc.

I played with SP+ ratings and the current point spreads currently found on espn.com (I believe they get them from Caesars) and came up with these picks that SP+ says Vegas has pretty wrong.

Texas State +3.5 vs ULM (SP+ says Tx State at home should be favored by 3)

Miami -2 vs UVA (SP+ says Miami should be favored by 6)

Maryland -3 at Purdue (SP+ says Twerps should be 6.5 pt favs...I don't love this one)

North Texas +3.5 at So. Miss (SP+ says UNT should be 2 pt favs)

USF +6.5 vs. BYU (SP+ says USF should be a 1 point fav...I don't love this one either)

Missouri -11.5 vs Ole Miss (SP+ might be greatly overrating Missouri here but it says Missouri should be laying 19)

UMass +33 at La. Tech (SP+ says the line should should be more like +21)

Air Force -3.5 vs Fresno (SP+ says AF should be laying 8)

method - basically took the SP+ rating for each team and subtracted the 2, then included the 2.5 pts for home field and compared the spreads. There were some others that I didn't include here. Also I found an article saying that if Vegas has a team as an underdog but SP+ says that team should be the favorite....teams in that spot are hitting like over 75% if the time this year.


Follow Ups:


[ Follow Ups ] [ O-Zone Forum ]