I use to play ALOT. Stopped about 20 years ago. I always look for lines that seem weird to me then I go against the
By Nickbuck on 12:50:12 10/09/19
[In reply to "so I had a few minutes this afternoon and decided to try to help curt out on his picks..." by Brutus, posted at 12:23:43 10/09/19]
:public. One that jumps out this week why is UC only a 7 point favorite. I would look at UH real hard there.
...since he has been taking an unwarranted (IMO) beating for saying Wisconsin would be doo doo this year etc.
: I played with SP+ ratings and the current point spreads currently found on espn.com (I believe they get them from Caesars) and came up with these picks that SP+ says Vegas has pretty wrong.
: Texas State +3.5 vs ULM (SP+ says Tx State at home should be favored by 3)
: Miami -2 vs UVA (SP+ says Miami should be favored by 6)
: Maryland -3 at Purdue (SP+ says Twerps should be 6.5 pt favs...I don't love this one)
: North Texas +3.5 at So. Miss (SP+ says UNT should be 2 pt favs)
: USF +6.5 vs. BYU (SP+ says USF should be a 1 point fav...I don't love this one either)
: Missouri -11.5 vs Ole Miss (SP+ might be greatly overrating Missouri here but it says Missouri should be laying 19)
: UMass +33 at La. Tech (SP+ says the line should should be more like +21)
: Air Force -3.5 vs Fresno (SP+ says AF should be laying 8)
: method - basically took the SP+ rating for each team and subtracted the 2, then included the 2.5 pts for home field and compared the spreads. There were some others that I didn't include here. Also I found an article saying that if Vegas has a team as an underdog but SP+ says that team should be the favorite....teams in that spot are hitting like over 75% if the time this year.